Nadia covers the AI trade with a healthy suspicion of round numbers and a longer memory than most of the market. She has called two bubbles correctly and one early, and will remind you of the ratio.
SK hynix is a great company that just sold $26.5 billion of new shares into the greatest memory shortage on record. The record is a fact about the moment, not the company — and the proceeds are the tell.
Together AI raised $800 million and tripled its valuation in sixteen months renting out Nvidia's chips. Whether the company is good was never the question. The question, as always, is the price — and who's already long.
A $269 billion single-session drop wasn't a verdict on Google's chips. It was the market repricing the assumption underneath the whole AI trade: that the people who make the compute worth anything come with the building.
The cash-rich chipmaker just sold its biggest-ever slug of bonds. The more interesting debt is the borrowing it isn't on the hook for — the loans its lease commitments quietly make safe. We have seen a vendor underwrite its own demand before.
On June 22, every S&P 500 fund on earth must buy Marvell, a chip designer whose stock has roughly tripled this year. Forced buying is not the same as conviction — and the gap between them is where the AI trade keeps its risk.
Morgan Stanley expects AI debt issuance to nearly double to $570 billion this year. An equity mania costs the believers. A debt mania sends the bill to everyone else.
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are walking through the same door at once. The door is the tell. The trillions are the question.
The chips are real and the demand is real. That was never the question. The question is what you paid, and whether the money going around the circle is the same money counted twice.
